With the guacamole-centric Cinco de Mayo holiday on the horizon, supplies of both organic and conventional avocados are expected to increase throughout April, allowing for the typical retail promotions for the popular celebratory event.

Conventional avocado promotions will proliferate with a potential drop in the FOB price to accompany the rising volume. Organic avocado volume should also increase as California shippers enter the game in full force, but there might not be a similar drop in the organic FOB price.

Patrick Lucy, President, Del Rey Avocado Company

“We are expecting good supplies of organic avocados throughout April,” said Patrick Lucy, president of Fallbrook, California-based Del Rey Avocado Company, which is a leading supplier in the organic sector. “Mexico will still be going strong, and we expect California growers to start picking more organic avocados this month.”

But Lucy cautioned that while the volume will be there to support organic avocado promotions, the FOB price may not drop much. He reasoned that Mexico is heading toward the end of its organic volume, and with total California supplies off this year by about 10 percent, organic volume is also down. Another element in the marketing dynamics of organic fruit is that Peru’s crop of avocados is running a bit late, with no heavy shipping weeks anticipated until late June.

"We are expecting good supplies of organic avocados throughout April. Mexico will still be going strong, and we expect California growers to start picking more organic avocados this month.” - Patrick Lucy

“We expect that there is going to be a very strong organic market for California fruit through May and June and into July,” he said.

That means that while California growers might be willing to provide the market with organic avocados in April, they are not going to do so at a discounted price.

Lucy noted that the size curve for organic avocados from Mexico is skewing a bit smaller than usual, with the 60 size being the peak. This is actually beneficial for retailers, which tend to gravitate toward a smaller piece of fruit for their organic customers as it is typically priced a bit lower than the larger 48s. However, this season in early April, there is an interesting dynamic occurring as 60-size fruit, especially on the conventional side, has been commanding a premium over the usually more-popular 48s.

Lucy explained that because of this year’s strong market on avocados, many retailers have switched to promoting a 60 over a 48 since having 12 more pieces of fruit to play with in each carton generally allows for better per-piece retail pricing. But as the demand for 60s increase, so does the price. On April 5, the Del Rey executive reported that a box of 60s was selling for a dollar or two more than the 48s, and even the smaller, and typically more economical, 70-size fruit was experiencing a very strong market not too far below the 48s.

Peter Shore, Vice President of Product Management, Calavo Growers

Peter Shore, vice president of product management for Calavo Growers in Santa Paula, California, echoed many of the same comments in his market analysis. He said that Calavo has started selling organic avocados from California and noted that volumes will pick up through April and will peak in May and June. Calavo is offering those avocados in bulk as well as in bags that call out the California origin of the fruit.

At the same time, Calavo continues to bring in good volume of organic fruit from Mexico. “That will definitely continue through April,” he said, adding that Mexico’s organic avocado volume tends to taper off each year after Cinco de Mayo.

“There should be enough volume of organic avocados for Cinco de Mayo promotions, but they are going to be at a higher price point than conventional fruit,” he said.

Shore said that organic avocados do enjoy solid ad support that is representative of their share of total retail volume.

Speaking of the current marketing dynamics for all avocados, Shore said it is a positive situation. He noted that Mexico is bringing in a lot of volume, and the demand is there as the FOB price has remained steady at a relatively good level. He anticipated that there could be a softening of the market as volume increases.

Indeed, in the projections that are on the Hass Avocado Board website, it is estimated that the first three weeks of April will see more than 210 million pounds of avocados put in commerce in the United States. That would represent more than a 10 percent increase in volume over the average weekly shipments in March.