With significantly reduced volumes from both Peru and Ecuador, supplies of both organic and conventional mangos are very short and highly priced, with relief still more than a month away.

“This is like nothing I’ve seen in my lifetime in this business,” said Freska Produce International Managing Member Gary Clevenger, who has been in the mango business for more than a quarter century. “What happened in Ecuador and Peru this season is unprecedented.”

Gary Clevenger, Managing Member, Freska Produce International 

Clevenger said extreme heat during the bloom period in both countries resulted in very poor sets. Growers in Ecuador reported a 65–75 percent volume reduction while Peru’s estimate was even more severe at 80 percent less than normal. 

“Typically, my cooler would be full of fruit (from those two countries) right now,” said the Oxnard, California-based distributor. “Instead, I have one room with any fruit at all. Organic mangos are $17 to $18 per carton with conventional fruit at $15 to $16.”

“This is like nothing I’ve seen in my lifetime in this business. What happened in Ecuador and Peru this season is unprecedented.” - Gary Clevenger

Because of the very high prices and low volume, Clevenger said retailers are taking a big hit. Mangos are a low-priced fruit compared to most other fruit commodities, with volume sales and promotions expected at this time of year. Often mangos are sold for $1 a piece or less with promotional pricing. The current situation has resulted in pricing at three or four times that level in many markets. “Movement is stagnant at retail because of the high retail prices,” he said.

Mexico has begun shipping yellow-skinned Ataulfos, with round red varieties expected to start in several weeks. “We expect a normal season from Mexico barring any adverse weather conditions over the next couple of months,” he said, adding that “normal” volume means between 65 and 70 million cartons for the season.

By late February, Clevenger expects Mexico’s volume to pick up significantly with Guatemala and Costa Rica joining the game in early March. “There should be promotable volume of organic and conventional mangos by mid-March into April,” Clevenger said.

Nissa Pierson, who handles sales and marketing for the Mexico-based Crespo Organic mango brand, agreed that the supply situation is very unusual. “But the problem is Peru, not Mexico,” she said. “Normally February and March are big volume months for Peru, but right now nothing is coming in.”

Nissa Pierson, Sales and Marketing, Crespo Organic

While Peru’s production is starting to move to more northern regions of the country where the supply situation is expected to be better, Pierson pointed out that Peruvian growers have several options when it comes to selling their fruit. “Peru has good export business to Europe, and they also have a good IQF (individual quick freezing) program for their fruit,” she said, indicating that the demand for their increasing supplies will be great.

Pierson noted that while Mexico typically starts shipping Ataulfo mangos in January, it doesn’t normally hit its stride until March and April when the industry at large begins shipping round red mangos in big numbers. She expects that same pattern to occur this year, but under different marketing circumstances because of the lack of supplies from Peru and elsewhere.

“We currently have good volume on both organic and conventional Ataulfo mangos,” she said, adding that Crespo Organic is providing its customers with a similar volume of fruit on a program basis as it does every year. “And we will be starting our round mango programs soon.”

She said as Mexico ramps up over the next two months, there should be some relief on the extremely high prices currently being quoted on the open market, but “normal” pricing is still at least two months away. “We will see some relief in March but not much,” Pierson predicted.

The organic mango marketer said the transition periods between the various growing regions in Mexico always have the potential of creating gaps and that might be more acute this year because of the shortage situation now in play and the high FOB prices. “Right now, the pricing is as high as I have ever seen,” Pierson said. “It’s double what would be normal.”

“We will see some relief in March but not much." - Nissa Pierson

That fact will certainly impact the supply/demand curve for weeks if not months.

As Mexico’s volume picks up in the spring, Central American sources of supply will also chip in with volume, which will help fill the demand. It remains to be seen how the Central American regions will perform this year.