A trio of organic vegetable producers agreed that supplies from Southwest growing areas are starting to pick up, easing the tight market situation on most crops. They also agreed that while FOB prices are falling, they are still in a strong position relative to a year ago.

“As we head into the new year and through the month of January, we are forecasting a much better supply position for several of our core commodities,” said Braga Fresh Family Farms Director of Sales Casey Mills. “With increased quantities of organic broccoli, organic cauliflower, organic romaine hearts, and organic red/green leaf headed our way, we do anticipate daily market pricing to fall more in line with seasonal norms.”

Casey Mills, Director of Sales, Braga Fresh Family Farms

Mills said that even though Braga Fresh is projecting price corrections for some of the commodities that have seen sky-high prices recently, the company expects pricing levels to stay strong overall. Historically, consumer demand increases in January, resulting in strong markets.

“The product quality emerging from our desert growing region is exceptional on all of our commodities, and this trend is likely to continue,” he said.

“With increased quantities of organic broccoli, organic cauliflower, organic romaine hearts, and organic red/green leaf headed our way, we do anticipate daily market pricing to fall more in line with seasonal norms.” - Casey Mills

Organic celery, Mills said, is bucking the trend. “One item we anticipate remaining in an extreme demand-exceeds-supply position for the foreseeable future as we transition fully from Salinas to the desert is organic celery,” he said. “We project this trend to continue all the way into February at this point.”

Rick Kilby, vegetable buyer for Earl’s Organic Produce on the San Francisco Produce Market, echoed the sentiments of Mills, especially on the quality of the product. “The quality is fantastic, and the market on most commodities is easing, but there are still some tension points,” Kilby said.

Rick Kilby, Vegetable Buyer, Earl's Organic Produce

He singled out organic celery and said it is going through the same situation that faced cauliflower, broccoli, head lettuce, and the leafy greens as they transitioned from the Salinas Valley to the desert production areas a month ago. Celery is one of the last commodities to finish in coastal California and one of the last to start harvesting in the desert.

“Supplies are short,” Kilby said earlier this week. “We are seeing FOB prices in the $70 range, and it looks like good production coming out of the desert is still a week or two away.”

Supplies of organic vegetables are on the rise, and FOB prices are still adjusting downward, according to Kilby, who used organic cauliflower as an example. “Last week [December 26-31], we still saw $50 FOBs for cauliflower. Over a five-day period, it has dropped down to $30.”

“[Organic celery] supplies are short. We are seeing FOB prices in the $70 range, and it looks like good production coming out of the desert is still a week or two away.” - Rick Kilby

Overall, prices across the board are higher than they were a year ago, with inflation and the slow start to the desert deal to blame. “As we get further into January and volume starts to peak, we will see prices fall,” Kilby said. “We are always looking for promotional opportunities for our customers, and they are coming. Right now [(organic] lettuce might be the best bet. It’s mostly in the mid-$20s.”

Darrell Beyer, Founding Partner, Bluebird Mountain Organics

Organic industry veteran Darrell Beyer, who launched Reno, NV-based Bluebird Mountain Organics last year, said organic veg supplies are increasing from the desert, and at some point, warm weather is likely to create a bigger bump in supplies. As such, Beyer said, the buyer community is pointing to increased supplies and trying to talk the market down.

“Right now, I don’t see it,” he said of the coming wave of product. “The desert is still cold with the highs in the mid-$60s. Guys are trying to talk the price down, but they are still buying. It seems like we are still trying to figure out where the market is going (on most commodities).”

Next week should bring some clarity to the markets, Beyer said, using several items to illustrate his point. Broccoli, he said, is one item where everyone is gun shy. “The market is in the mid-to-high $20s, and people are still buying, but everyone is waiting for the volume to hit—and when it comes, watch out.”

“Right now, I don’t see it. The desert is still cold with the highs in the mid-$60s. Guys are trying to talk the price down, but they are still buying. It seems like we are still trying to figure out where the market is going (on most commodities).” - Darrell Beyer

Retailers looking for promotional items for the organic aisle could look at kale, parsley, and radishes, all of which are in good supply and reasonably priced, Beyer said.