Slow avocado shipping pushes prices sky high as NFL playoffs startSlow avocado shipping pushes prices sky high as NFL playoffs start

January is considered the most voluminous avocado shipping month of the year for the U.S. market. With the run-up to Super Bowl Sunday on Feb. 9—the largest avocado consumption day of the year—weekly avocado shipments average more than 60 million pounds, typically peaking at more than 70 million pounds per week during the month.

That may be the case again this year, but a severe demand-exceeds-supply situation existed as the calendar turned to 2025 and a slower-than-usual ramp up in supplies has some wondering if the volume will catch up.

Patrick Lucy, president, Del Rey Avocado Company

Patrick Lucy, president of Del Rey Avocado Company in Fallbrook, California, said the luck of the calendar is the main cause for the supply disruption.  With Christmas Eve and Christmas Day falling in the middle of the week, followed by the same situation the following week with New Year’s Eve and New Years Day, there were four non-picking days in two weeks. Shipments from Mexico, the source of almost all avocados at this time of year, were down considerably: The two-week period ending Jan. 5 saw less than 70 million pounds of avocados marketed in the United States.

“Mexico needs to hit 60 million pounds [for the week ending Jan. 12] just to get caught back up,” Lucy said. “And then we need that level again the following week to fill the pipeline and the ripening rooms.”

The significant increase in picking since the holidays has led to aa considerable amount of unrip fruit on retailers’ produce shelves, he said. The lack of supply has led to an FOB market of $75 to $80 on the most desirable size (48s) of both organic and conventional fruit.

Lucy is sure that Mexico will ramp up supplies and hit those high volume weeks throughout the rest of January and into February, but the big question is how that will impact volume from Mexico as the season progresses.  Mexico’s current crop season, which runs from July 1, 2024, to June 30, 2025, was estimated to be very similar to the nearly 2.5 billion pounds shipped to the United States during the previous 12-month period.  So far, shipments are running behind that level, he said. However, high prices and the lower-than-expected volume is creating potential opportunity for some early fruit being marketed by California growers, he added.

Peter Shore, VP of product management, Calavo Growers Inc

Peter Shore, vice president of product management for Calavo Growers Inc. in Santa Paula, California, has already seen some California fruit being marketed, he told OPN Connect on Jan. 6. Even that limited volume, though, should help California growers extend their season and improve marketing conditions for their fruit throughout the spring and into summer. California usually markets the vast majority of its fruit from April through July.

The Calavo executive said the current demand-exceeds-supply situation has an even greater impact on the organic avocado crop. “Organics represent a smaller volume of fruit, so when we see these supply gaps it creates market conditions that are even more volatile,” he said.

Although Super Bowl weekend is the big prize, marketers—including the industry-wide Avocados From Mexico program—push promotions all month long, creating excitement and ongoing demand. “It’s not just the Super Bowl; it’s also all the playoff games (in both college and the professional ranks) that create the eating occasions.”

He added that many consumers commit to a healthy eating regimen early in the year, which also increases demand for avocados.

Shore was confident supplies will increase and the FOB price would drop, but he wouldn’t predict how far. “The lack of supplies has created a bubble price,” he noted. “We should see it slip back down a bit this week and then we will just have to wait and see how much fruit comes into the market.”

He agreed that total supplies from Mexico are below expectations for the season and there is concern that the volume might not be there to take them through the spring with their usual numbers. This bodes well for California growers who are looking at their second straight year of a crop hovering around 370 million pounds, with about 10% of that volume coming from organics.