2023 Q1 Organic Produce Performance

Organic fresh produce in 2023 Q1 grew in dollars by 0.8% and declined in volume by 3.4% year over year. The Total Produce department gained 2.6% in dollars for 2023 Q1 and declined by 1.3% in volume. In an inflationary time period we see this standard of growth for dollars and decline for volume repeated for the majority of organic and conventional items.

When we look at pricing, conventional produce average price/Lb. has grown by 4.3% compared to 2022 Q1, while the organic produce average price/Lb. rose by 4.1%. Overall, the average price/Lb. has grown by 8 cents for the Total Produce department compared to 2022 Q1. With rising prices we may be seeing more selective organic shopping from consumers, as they substitute higher-priced organic items for conventional items.

Organic Tomatoes were the largest example of substitution as their price/Lb. increased almost 3x the amount of conventional, resulting in volume decline of 8.1%. Most other categories with large differentials in price increase did not see large drops in organic volume. Although not all categories shared the same results, 2023 Q1 continues to show volume sensitivity, possibly due to pricing.

Volume performances were different for both organic and conventional produce holistically. Organics suffered more in 2023 Q1 as volume fell 3.4% compared to a 1.2% decline for conventional. While the trend for conventional volume is down since 2020, organics grew in the years not marked by mass inflation.